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Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (October 20)


 MARKET

Chinese stocks closed higher, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3378.65 points. The Chinese stocks gauge advanced 0.25% with shrinking volume, as property sector was a major drag on China’s economic expansion in the third quarter. Transportation and Steel sector led the gains; while Food& Beverage and Household Appliance sector led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 362.2 bn, down 16.34% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3378.65

0.25

155.07

8.86

Shenzhen

11238.88

0.44

207.71

10.43

CSI 300

3926.85

-0.11

94.53

18.63

ChiNext

1880.21

0.94

58.79

-4.17

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Transportation

601228

Steel

002652

Downward-leading

Food& Beverage

600873

Household Appliance

603578

 

NEWS

*China's power generation grows faster in September. China's power generation saw faster growth in September than August, with electricity from clean energy sources expanding at rapid pace, official data showed Thursday. Last month, power production rose 5.3 percent, 0.5 percentage point faster than August, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Thursday. Electricity from hydropower plants rose 18.6 percent, higher than the 5 percent increase in August, due to sufficient water supply in southern regions. Nuclear, wind and solar power production surged by 21.9 percent, 36.8 percent and 25.2 percent respectively, all much faster than August. (China Daily)

 

*Midea Group opens R&D center in Silicon Valley. Midea Group, a leading global player in consumer appliances, heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems, and robot and industrial automation systems, has opened a technology research and development center in Silicon Valley, according to a senior research manager with the company. (China Daily)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice


15030




Macro

The Senate Approved The Budget!! Safe Havens Dipped And The Dollar Strengthened


Morning Briefing October 20th 2017


There is plenty of data on both sides of the Atlantic Friday, although early headlines will largely come from Brussels where the EU27 will meet to discuss Brexit.

At 0600GMT, the German producer price numbers will be released, followed by the euro area current account data at 0800GMT.

The main UK data will be published at 0830GMT, when the latest public sector finance data will be released, the last set to be released before the Office for Budget Responsibility close their Budget calculations.

Across the Atlantic, the calendar kicks off at 1230GMT, with the publication of the Canadian CPI and retail sales data.

At 1400GMT, the US NAR existing home sales data will cross the wires with the BLS State Employment numbers expected at the same time.

The pace of existing home sales is expected to decelerate further to a 5.30 million annual rate in September after falling in each of the last three months. Sales were likely set back by the hurricanes, but could rebound early in 2018 due to the back-up of sales that could not be processed in the impacted areas.

Pending home sales fell by 2.6% in August, a downside risk for the existing home sales data in September. Supply fell 2.1% in August and was down 6.5% from a year earlier, an indication of that supply shortage continues. In areas impacted by the hurricanes, the shortage of new homes for people to trade up to will likely continue for some time.

The St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast will be released at 1500GMT, with the NY Fed GDP Nowcast expected at 1515GMT

At 1800GMT, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester speaks on a  panel at "The Future of Global Finance: opulism, Technology and Regulation" conference in New York City, with an audience and media Q&A.

At2330GMT, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will deliver a lecture on "Monetary Policy Since the Financial Crisis" at the NEC Herbert Stein Memorial Lecture and Annual Members Dinner in Washington, with audience Q&A...

Global Economic Trading Calendar


Markets


SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session:- Nikkei 225 up 8.67 points at 21456.83  - ASX 200 up 13.973 points at 5912.4  - Shanghai Comp. down 1.829 points at 3368.321 - JGB 10-Yr future down 5 ticks at 150.33, yield up 0.4bp at 0.072%- Aussie 3-Yr future flat at 97.86, yield up 0.3bp at 2.112%  - Aussie 10-Yr future down 1 tick at 97.2, yield up 1bp at 2.773%  - US 10-Yr future down 6+ ticks at 125.01+, yield up 3.41bp at 2.3519%

US TSY/RECAP: Treasuries ended Thursday higher after drift off midmorning safe-haven rally highs hit amid concern on Spain/Catalan rift, N. Korea nuclear saber-rattling and tax reform uncertainty. - Tsy solid $5B 30Y TIPS reopen: 0.908% rate, good 76.4% indirects, 0.50% directs, leaving only a small 23.1% portion for dealers. Tsys saw long end bounce from mid-week rout. US stocks receded from record high amid profit-taking, later consolidation. White House confirmed US Pres. Trump concluded meeting today with Fed Chair Yellen; he will decide among 5 finalists for Fed Chair post. - There was not much of react to early data, Tsys inched higher after topping overnight highs in long end prior to data release. Flows had better buying in 10s-30s from prop, real$ and bank portfolios, FX-tied buys as US$ softened vs. Yen. Chatter of asset allocation out of stocks into Tsys. - T-Notes open Asia at 125-12+, the 10-Year yield last at 2.318.


US EURODLR FUTURES: Eurodollar unchanged for the white pack, down across the rest of the strip in the most activity Eurodollar has seen in the Asia-Pac session for a while as volumes pick up as Pres. Trump's decision on Fed chair looms. Rate hike probability is still above 80%. Sources given insight into some large clips off screen in Eurodollar: 1k Eurodollar EDZ7/Z8/Z9 fly bought at 20 (earlier bought at 19.5,) 3k EDH9 given at 98.03, 4k EDU7 given at 98.5.

STOCKS: The Nikkei 225 has declined on the Toyko session, last down 11pts at 21436.44. The yen has declined as news broke the U.S Senate approved the budget, bolstering support for Pres. Trumps promised tax plans. - The Hang-Seng earlier in the session showed losses but is currently up around 280pts at 28435.  - U.S Stocks extended gains into the overnight close amid speculation Powell was the top contender for Fed chair, the dollar climbed.  - European stocks all closed down amid the Catalonian Crisis, Spanish government officials is going to suspend Catalonia's autonomy and impost direct rulings after Catalonia's president chose not to abandon the regions bid for independence.

OIL: Extremely flat session for Crude oil, moving within a range of $0.09, last at $51.42. - On the overnight crude oil dipped as U.S. Stock inventories increased and Iraqi engineers began to replace output in oil rich Kirkuk after reclaiming the province. Gas storage counts were up but by a lot less than previous at 51 from 87 and lower than surveyed at 53. - Baker Hughes Rig Count on Friday.

GOLD: The dollar gained as the U.S. Senate announced their approval of the budget, meaning positive steps towards Pres. Trumps promised tax cuts. As the dollar and yields climbed, our precious metal steeply declined heading for it's fifth weekly drop in six weeks. Thursday ET it was said that Pres. Trump was favouring Powell for Fed chair and U.S. stocks climbed. - LEVELS: Gold was last trading at $1284.61, down $5.51.- On the overnight gold climbed amid tension in the Spanish Catalonian Crisis and N. Korea.

FOREX: The US dollar was broadly bid against its peers during the Asia-Pacific session, underpinned by news that the US Senate had passed a budget proposal that will pave the way for Republican tax reform. Dollar-yen climbed from Y112.52 to Y113.31 and was last at Y113.18. Euro-dollar trekked lower from $1.1858 to $1.1807, currently at $1.1813. Cable eased from $1.3160 to $1.3099, recoveries were of the anaemic variety and the Pound was last at $1.3104. Aussie dropped from $0.7882 to $0.7829 before pulling back to the mid-$0.7840's.

Meanwhile, Kiwi dollar was the main underperformer, the rate easing from $0.7037 to $0.6972, the local currency further weighed down by political uncertainty with investors largely side-lined while waiting for policy details from the new government. Kiwi was last at $0.6986.

Technical Analysis

 


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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


15029




Technical Analysis

USDCAD Weekly MACD Positively Crossing


The USDCAD edged higher yesterday as it continued its 2 plus weeks of consolidation, and appears poised to resume sometime early next week the September bounce off just above 1.2 to 1.25.  Assuming bulls are successful in breaking above the slightly downsloping resistance line (on the 4hr chart), the USDCAD will likely gravitate towards its August high.  Weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are rallying, bottomish or consolidating recent gains.  I am looking to go long in the green zone (of the daily chart) and am targeting the red zone for early next week.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).

 

USDCAD Weekly/Daily/4hr

 

Click here for today's technical analysis on Soybean, Ethereum

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


15026




Options

Vol. 411: European Impact


CBOETV - Michael Palmer, Group One Trading, discusses volatility factors, and activity in Nov. and Feb. options.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CBOE or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will CBOE or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2016 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.

This video is from CBOE and is being posted with CBOE’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or CBOE and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


15025




Securities Lending

SLB Update: Largest Short Value per Sector


The following table shows the securities with the largest short value per sector on 10/13/2017.
 


 

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


15024




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