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Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (April 26)


MARKET

Chinese stocks closed mixed today, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3140.85 points. The A-shares market fluctuated after hopes of pension funds’ investment and development in Xiongan New Area boosted market optimism. Electronic Components and Utilities sectors led the gains; while Military and Oil sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 430.3bn, up 11.30% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3140.85

0.20

197.11

1.20

Shenzhen

10204.84

0.39

233.63

0.27

CSI 300

3445.18

0.12

131.32

4.08

ChiNext

1820.48

0.09

57.53

-7.22

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Electronic Components

300028

Utilities

600008

Downward-leading

Military

600085

Oil

600759

 

NEWS

* China launched its second aircraft carrier Wednesday morning in a Dalian shipyard in Liaoning Province, northeast China. The new carrier, the first developed and built by China, was transferred from a dry dock into water at a launch ceremony, starting about 9 a.m. in the Dalian shipyard of the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation.It is China's second aircraft carrier, coming after the Liaoning, a refitted Soviet Union-made carrier put into commission in the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy in 2012. (Xinhua)

*Pension fund invest in stock market. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said yesterday that 137 billion yuan (US$20 billion) of pension funds have begun to invest in the stock market. (Xinhua)

*China crude steel output up 4.6 pct in Q1. China's crude steel output grew 4.6 percent year on year to 201.1 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2017, compared with a slight drop for the same period of last year, an industry association said Wednesday. The rise was a result of more production capacity and a low comparison base last year, the China Iron and Steel Association said in a press release. (Xinhua)

*China urges upgrading energy consumption pattern. China's top economic planner Tuesday called for implementation of a government plan to promote reform in energy production and consumption. China's total energy consumption will be capped at 6 billion metric tons of coal equivalent by 2030, according to a government plan for 2016 to 2030, issued by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The plan is aimed at optimizing the energy mix and ensuring energy security, in the face of a new supply-demand pattern in the global market, said NDRC in an online statement. (Xinhua)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


13031




Technical Analysis

EURUSD Breaking Weekly Chart Downchannel Resistance


The EURUSD rallied another 100 pips yesterday from the day's low to high, overtaking the Monday gap up, and is now just shy of upchannel resistance (on the 4hr and daily charts).  Any upside today will likely be modest today given the proximity of the EURUSD to the psychologically key level of 1.1 which coincides roughly with the upchannel resistance lines mentioned above.  Nevertheless, odds suggest any pullback in the next few days will be relatively shallow now that the EURUSD has broken downchannel resistance (on the weekly chart), with key upchannel support (on the 4hr chart).  Weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am looking to go long intraday in the next few days on any meaningful pullback to the green zone (of the daily chart) targeting the red zone by early next week.

 

EURUSD Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

 

Click here for today's technical analysis on EURJPY, USDJPY

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


13030




Macro

European Market Outlook: Risk On Spurred by US Stocks, Trump Tax Announcement Awaited


Morning Briefing April 26th 2017


Wednesday throws up a muted calendar, with little in the way of data either side of the Atlantic.

The European calendar kicks off at 0645GMT, with the publication of the French consumer sentiment data.

At 0700GMT, Bundesbank Board member Andreas Dombret speaks at Finance Summit 2017, in Frankfurt.

Early US data sees the publication of the MBA weekly applications index at 1100GMT.

At the same time, in the UK, the last PMQs of the current Parliament is due. It will be MPs last chance to quiz the PM in the Commons ahead of the June 8 election.

After PMQs, May will meet head of the European Commission Jean Claude Juncker and EC chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier.

At 1230GMT, Canadian retail trade data will be published.

US Building permits revisions will be released at 1430GMT, with the Department of Energy weekly crude oil stocks.

 

Global Economic Trading Calendar


 

Markets


SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session:  Nikkei 225 up 145 points at 19,225.64 ASX 200 up 40 points at 5,911.70 Shanghai Comp. up 10 points at 3,144.37 JGB 10-Year future down 7 ticks at 150.98, JGB 10-Year yield up 0.5bp at 0.028% Aussie 3-Yr future down 2 ticks at 98.13, 3-Year yield up 3.3bp at 1.838% Aussie 10-Yr future down 3.5 ticks at 97.35, 10-Year yield up 3bp at 2.625% US 10-Year future down 1 ticks at 125.10+, US 10-Year yield unch at 2.332%.

US TSY/RECAP: Treasuries end relatively quiet Tues lower after afternoon selling as GOP's McConnell and Dem's Schumer expressed hope on US stopgap spending deal soon; US-Canada trade tensions also hurt Tsys. Strong $26B 2Y auction: most indirect buyers (58.9%) since 2009; Multiple risks: potential Trump tax news Wed, budget stop-gap bill, FOMC, N.Korea, Russia, France May7 runoff. T-Notes open Asia at 125.11, 10-Year yield last 2.332%.

AUSSIE BONDS: Aussie bonds are lower, playing catch up during SYCOM after being closed for ANZAC day on Tuesday. Yields up between 2.8bp and 3.4bp, moves fairly even across the curve, but some steepening is expected today. 3-Year futures down 2 ticks at 98.13, 10-Year future down 3 ticks at 97.35. Seeing rangebound moves since the SFE open ahead of Aussie CPI (0230 London, 1130 Sydney). Bloomberg note bearish flow in the 3-Year, intraday options seeing a bearish skew with 10,400 puts v 850 calls at 98.15. Also point out 98.09 puts lifted for 3k and 2.4k bid over.

BOJ: The Bank of Japan offered to buy a total of Y750 billion JGB’s (sizes unchanged Y450bln5-10yrs, Y200bln 10-25yrs and Y100bln 25+).

US EURODLR FUTURES: Mostly slightly lower across the strip, holding at lows from yesterday, thin volumes ahead of Trump's tax announcement.  Current White pack (Jun'17-Mar'18): * Jun'17 unch at 98.695  * Sep'17 unch at 98.570 * Dec'17 -0.005 at 98.480 * Mar'18 -0.005 at 98.390  * Red pack (Jun'18-Mar'19) unch to -0.005 * Green pack (Jun'19-Mar'20) unch to -0.010.

JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks head in to the lunch break higher, and just off highs of the session. Taking a positive lead from US stocks the Nikkei 225 opened around 100 points higher at 19,184.92. - Nikkei 225 goes in to the break at 19,231.92, up 152 points. Toshiba are a big mover in the index today, up 3.5% after announcing they were parting ways with Pricewaterhouse Coopers after the auditor said they would not endorse their earnings, though US Commerce Sec. Ross said the US could potentially support Toshiba's US nuclear arm Westinghouse. Showa Denko are the biggest gainer, up 6.5% after profit beat estimates. On the Nikkei 8/10 sectors are in the green, energy stocks leading the way, up 1.99%, while telecommunications lag.

OIL: Oil is slightly lower in Asia-Pac trade, WTI last trading down $0.14 at $49.42. API inventory last night showed a build in headline crude of 897k bbls against an expected drawdown of 1.7mln bbls, while Cushing stocks fell 1.971mln bbls. WTI dropped following the figure, losing around $0.40.

GOLD: Gold has eked some marginal gains in Asia-Pac, though is still holding near lows from yesterday after a two-day decline, gold is way of its April highs of $1,295, but gold is still up around 10% year to date. Gold last trades at $1,264.32 up $0.18. Some of the shine has come off the yellow metal after USD rallied ahead of Trump's tax announcement during the US session today, and equities rallied after strong US earnings.

FOREX: The dollar continued to firm during the Asia-Pacific region as investors hitched a ride on Trump's 'big' tax plan band wagon, due to be announced later today. Dollar-yen climbed from Y110.97 to Y111.39 and was last at Y111.25. Aussie eased from $0.7554 to $0.7509, weaker-than-expected local Q1 CPI provided further fuel for dollar bulls. Kiwi-dollar dropped from $0.6956 to $0.6922 and was last at $0.6934. Meanwhile, Euro-dollar was last at $1.0940 and Cable at $1.2837, after trading in respective ranges of $1.0924 to $1.0945 and $1.2831 to $1.2843.

 

Technical Analysis


BUND: (M17) Immediate Pressure On 100-DMA

*RES 4: 162.25 Low Apr 6 now resistance
*RES 3: 162.22 21-DMA
*RES 2: 161.63 High Apr 24
*RES 1: 161.23 Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.71

*SUP 1: 160.57 100-DMA
*SUP 2: 160.14 Low Mar 28
*SUP 3: 159.09 High Mar 24
*SUP 4: 158.73 Monthly Low Mar 14    

*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure has returned to the 100-DMA. Bears now look for a close below the 100-DMA to add weight to the case for a test of 158.26-73 where 2017 lows are noted. Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls needing a close above 161.63 to ease bearish pressure and above 162.49 to confirm a break above the 21-DMA, easing bearish pressure and shifting overall focus back to 163.99.

 

EUROSTOXX50: Immediate Focus On 3602.26

*RES 4: 3714.26 Monthly High July 20 2015
*RES 3: 3686.57 Monthly High Aug 6 2015
*RES 2: 3602.26 Low Aug 11 2015 now resistance
*RES 1: 3593.13 2017 High Apr 25

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3583.16

*SUP 1: 3556.41 Hourly support Apr 25
*SUP 2: 3554.44 High Aug 18 2015 now support
*SUP 3: 3524.04 Monthly High Nov 30 2015 now support
*SUP 4: 3508.11 High Apr 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: The bounce from last week’s low was identified as a concern for bears and has been validated with an aggressive really that now sees immediate focus on 3602.26 from Aug 2015 and overall focus on 3714.26 July 2015 monthly highs. The daily slow stochastic study is well placed for further gains. Layers of support remain with bears still needing a close below 3556.41 to gain breathing room and below 3508.11 to shift focus lower.

 

Eurex Futures Market Close


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MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


13029




Options

What's Trading: TWTR


CBOETV - Peter Lusk, Senior Instructor, CBOE Options Institute, discusses a size call spread in TWTR weeklys ahead of tomorrow's BMO earnings.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CBOE or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will CBOE or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2016 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.

This video is from CBOE and is being posted with CBOE’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or CBOE and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


13028




Securities Lending

SLB Update: Hardest to Borrow ETFs


These were the 15 hardest to borrow ETFs during the week of 4/10/17 - 4/14/17.
 

 

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


13027




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